I know I’ve left this a little late, but my main reason was my desire to see as many of the nominated films as possible and today was my first opportunity to see Parasite (which has only just been released in the UK this week). More on that film coming up, but I’ll start by saying that, for the most part, it seems that this year’s awards are likely to be largely predictable, especially the acting categories and with only hours to go, the biggest question seems to be whether Parasite can be the first foreign language film to take Best Picture. Is that something the Academy is ready to do? I’m still not sure it is.
Yet, despite a lot of these “predictions” feeling rather predictable, I still wanted to set them out and see how many I get right (or indeed wrong). Full disclosure before I start – I’ve tried to see most of the films, but largely due to some films disappearing within a week from my local cinemas, I’ve not yet see Ford v. Ferrari (aka Le Mans ’66), Pain & Glory and Harriet. I’ve also been unable to see the film shorts, or the documentaries, so I’ll leave those categories out.
Right, that said, here are my thoughts on what I think will win and what I’d have voted for.
- Best Picture
I’ll start with the big one – Best Picture. Of the eight I’ve seen, I’ve enjoyed most of the nominees this year, although I don’t think it’s as strong a year as other recent ones.
I enjoyed the epic scope of The Irishman, watching these lives over decades and thought Pesci was particularly impressive. It was perhaps 30 minutes too long though. Little Women was a welcome new interpretation of a story most of us have seen at least one version of by now and I enjoyed the way Greta Gerwig chose to move around the timelines here, giving the story a freshness I didn’t expect. It seems to be controversial, but I thought Joker was very good – for me, it was a powerful look at how someone, already vulnerable and in need of support from society, can spiral in to a frightening life. Did I think the violence was glamourised? No. It was far less violent than The Irishman (which was based on real events) and for me it wasn’t aiming to seek sympathy for a criminal; it simply forced me to ask difficult questions about the grey. It stayed with me for a long time afterwards. JoJo Rabbit was a real gem this year; a film you aren’t sure you’ll like, or should even like, but yet is one that becomes so much more than a film mocking Nazis. It’s a beautiful story of friendship, love and kindness conquering hate, which made me feel surprisingly hopeful by the end. 1917 was as powerful, moving and visually impressive as I’d been expecting. The one-shot style didn’t feel like a gimmick and I loved how it highlighted the incredible acts of bravery during WWI, alongside the tragic needless loss of so many young lives.
I didn’t particularly enjoy Marriage Story, despite appreciating the strength of the performances and wasn’t strong enough to win for me. As for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, it seems people either love it, or found it rather tedious. I’m in the second group. It was so long (The Irishman felt like a short film compared to this) and not being familiar with the historical events that are changed, it didn’t resonate with me, the way it may do with others.
And so – my winner. Until today I wasn’t sure if there’d be a film this season that would really make me sit up in my chair and take a moment to acknowledge I’d watched something truly special. That changed earlier today, as I walked out of Parasite. I’ll review this separately, but I loved it. Clever, engaging, Shakespearian, filled with humour and darker moments in equal measure and able to convey so much about society and those at the top and the bottom in a way that hit home. For me, it’s the clear Best Picture. Will it win? I’m not so sure.
Will Win: 1917 (unless the Academy are brave and do the right thing)
My Choice: Parasite
- Best Actor
There’s not too much to say here, as I think the winner is already obvious and in my view, rightfully so. All four (of five) that I’ve seen are very good, although not all would have made my top five. I was particularly impressed with Jonathan Pryce in The Two Popes, which I really enjoyed (far more than I expected). I’d also say that, although I didn’t particularly like Uncut Gems, Adam Sandler’s performance was one that I do think deserved to be on this list and Michael B Jordan in Just Mercy should also have been in serious contention too. Yet, it’s ultimately moot, as no one was going to beat Joaquin Phoenix. He’s simply outstanding in Joker. The visual transformation is horrifying, yet it’s also the way he brings that character to life; every mannerism (the way he runs the same, whether or not he’s wearing the clown fit as one example), the different laughs and the sheer raw emotional power he brings to the screen. He’s always been a superb actor and he’s earned this one.
Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix
My Choice: Joaquin Phoenix
- Best Actress
This seems to be another category where the winner seems all but guaranteed and from the nominees listed, I’ll be happy to see Renee Zellweger win this year. I wasn’t hugely impressed by Judy (perhaps partly due to seeing the play it’s based on End of the Rainbow, which impressed me much more), but she was excellent in this. A close second for me is Charlize Theron in Bombshell. Yet, my biggest issue with Best Actress is that my Best Actress this year isn’t nominated and that’s Alfre Woodard for Clemency, playing a female prison warden of a men’s prison. It’s the performance that has stayed with me and impressed me the most and it’s incredibly disappointing she isn’t nominated.
Will Win: Renee Zellweger
My Choice: Alfre Woodard
- Best Director
This is a tough one for me. I thought 1917 was terrific and a great achievement by Sam Mendes. Joker is also handled so well by Todd Philips, but for me the winner should be Bong Joon Ho. What he has achieved with Parasite is something very special indeed. This being the Oscars, I’m not sure who’ll win, but I have a feeling it’ll be Tarantino v. Mendes, so I’ll say Tarantino, as lots of Hollywood types seem to be in love with this film.
Will Win: Quentin Tarantino
My Choice: Bong Joon Ho
- Actor in a Supporting Role
Having seen all five of this performances, none of them really stood out for me to be honest. They were all very good, but again, Jamie Foxx stood out in Just Mercy for me and he wasn’t nominated. It seems clear it’s Brad Pitt’s time to win, which I’m fine with and he was my favourite part of a film I didn’t really like.
Will Win: Brad Pitt
My Choice: Brad Pitt (notable mention for Jamie Foxx)
- Actress in a Supporting Role
Again, I’ve seen all four performances and they were all very good, in very different ways. It seems likely Laura Dern will win, but for me the best were Margot Robbie, whose performance in Bombshell really felt real, conveying the awful situations too many women have found themselves in and Scarlett Johansson, who brought humour, fun and a great deal of emotion to JoJo Rabbit. It’s close, but I’d go with Johansson.
Will Win: Laura Dern
My Choice: Scarlett Johansson
I’ve seen four of the five, but this surely has to go to Roger Deakins for 1917. His work is helping create the one-shot style of this film makes the film what it is. If that didn’t work, the film would have far less power than it does.
Will Win: 1917
My Choice: 1917
- Orignal Score
Music is always hugely important to my cinema experience and a great score shines out, while not taking over the film. All those nominated do this very well this year, but it has to be Joker, as Hildur Guonadottir’s score helps to create the mood of the film and with some themes written before filming even started, the music really does feel as though it’s another character.
Will Win: Joker
My Choice: Joker
- Original Screenplay
I’m probably starting to sound predictable by this point, but for me this should go to Parasite, for the sheer originality of the storytelling. Yet, I won’t be surprised if the Academy awards Tarantino.
Will Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
My Choice: Parasite
- Adapted Screenplay
I think this will perhaps be where the Academy attempt to make up for that directing snub and acknowledge the work of Greta Gerwig, which I’m more than fine with, as the writing choices for this version of Little Women were a huge part of why I enjoyed it so much, although I do have a huge amount of love for JoJo Rabbit.
Will Win: Little Women
My Choice: JoJo Rabbit
- Visual Effects
I’m assuming this will go to 1917, but for me I’d choose Avengers: Endgame; a film which deserves something for being such a damn good film.
Will Win: 1917
My Choice: Avengers: Endgame
- Production Design
I’m less certain about this one, but I’d probably choose 1917, for creating such a very real world over the course of the journey of those characters. I’ll say the Academy will agree, but who knows!
Will Win: 1917 (maybe!)
My Choice: 1917
- Makeup & Hairstyling
I honestly cannot decide who will win here, but personally, I think Bombshell deserves it, for all the effort to transform the actors in to those people, so that it was almost uncanny.
Will Win: Bombshell (maybe)
My Choice: Bombshell
- Costume Design
Another one that I’m not confident about, but I’d give this to Little Women.
Will Win: Little Women?
My Choice: Little Women
As I’ve not seen the short films and documentaries, I won’t try and predict anything there and my knowledge of sound mixing and editing make these categories I’d be simply guessing. As for editing, I’ve heard a lot of talk about Ford v Ferrari, which as I haven’t seen, I can’t really comment.
I know this is late (blame the UK’s late release of Parasite!), but I’d love to hear your thoughts!